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A Turning Point

Jul 15, 2014 | Newpathway, The View From Here - Walter Kish

As I write this, the Ukrainian flag is once again flying over the city of Slovyansk in the Donetsk Oblast. For the past three months this city of some 130,000 people has been the center of heavy fighting between Ukrainian forces and several thousand well supplied Russian mercenaries and local terrorists that seized it in the aftermath of Euromaidan and the forcible annexation of Crimea. It has been the focal point of Putin’s blatant attempt to reproduce in Eastern Ukraine what he managed to do in Crimea. The difference here though is that Ukrainians are fighting back and this time they are winning.
They are winning for a number of reasons. For one, despite the significant Russification of Donbas, native Russians, unlike in Crimea, are not a majority. Further, even the Russian speakers have become increasingly dismayed with the banditry, extortion and wanton killing perpetrated by the hired thugs and mercenaries that Putin has sent in. Despite, and probably because of the amateurish, brutal and exploitive behavior of the self-proclaimed leaders of the so-called Donetsk and Luhansk Republics, the locals largely are not buying what Putin is selling.
Secondly, the Ukrainian government is no longer weak and vacillating as it was during the Crimean crisis. Whatever one may think of Poroshenko, ever since he became President, he has exuded a degree of forcefulness and competence that we have not seen in Ukraine in a long time. His recent cease-fire initiative was a smart poker move – he called Putin’s bluff and showed he was willing to negotiate in good faith, thereby demonstrating to Europe and the world that he was serious in striving for peace rather than conflict. Of course he knew well that the terrorists in Slovyansk and elsewhere would not yield. Once they broke the cease fire, he was able to counter-attack from a high moral ground having seized the propaganda initiative from Putin.
Thirdly, the Ukrainian forces are beginning to finally demonstrate some degree of skill and competence. Part of this is due to the fact that the Ukrainian government has been able to purge the more blatant corrupt and traitorous elements from its police and military forces. The weeding out process has been particularly difficult and even embarrassing at times, but it is becoming clear that the worst is over and definite progress is being made. What has also helped considerably is the fact that the government has been able to send in large contingents of loyal and determined National Guard forces from central and western Ukraine to the east who are ready, willing and able to fight the mercenaries and terrorists. The cost in lives has been high, but their effort has demonstrated to Putin and the Russians that repeating Crimea will be a difficult and costly enterprise.
Lastly, Poroshenko has called Putin’s bluff about sending the Russian army in Ukraine. He knows well that Putin will rant and bluster about doing so, but he cannot do it without crossing the Rubicon that will bring down serious sanctions from the EU and the U.S.A. To date the sanctions imposed have been more of a symbolic nature than ones that have caused significant pain to Russia. Nonetheless, they have had an effect, and have served notice that if Putin officially sends his troops in that more serious and all-encompassing ones will follow. The Russian economy is already faltering and significant sanctions could bring it down completely.
And so it appears that a turning point has been reached in this conflict that began over eight months ago with some small but determined demonstrations on the Maidan in response to Yanykovych’s betrayal of his commitment to sign an association agreement with the EU. That agreement is now signed, Ukraine has decided that its future lies with Europe and not Russia, its people are more united than ever, and Putin’s imperialistic play is collapsing ignominiously. Putin and Russia have shown their true colours and have been now become isolated globally. As the implications of that begin to be felt in the months and years to come, Putin’s re-incarnation of an imperialistic and authoritarian Russian state is destined to ultimately collapse.
Of course there are serious challenges ahead. Ukraine must seal off its borders with Russia and cut off the flow of mercenaries and weaponry. It must then eliminate the thugs still operating on its territories. Following that it must begin rebuilding the industrial and commercial infrastructures of Eastern Ukraine, return peace and stability to this war-torn land, and demonstrate to its citizens that their future will be better off with Ukraine than with Russia. That cannot be done with guns, but with goodwill, some local autonomy, protection of language rights and investment.
Needless to say, Putin will not sit idly by and allow this to happen without challenge. Yet, I am beginning to feel confident that in Poroshenko, Putin is now facing someone that has the shrewdness, intelligence and competence to counter effectively anything that this Russian “h****” can throw at him. In the months to come, we will know whether Ukraine has finally found the leadership it needs to bring it out of the morass of the past two decades and into a genuine democratic and corruption-free future.

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